The Future of Keitai

Kenji Kohiyama, Professor at the Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University

Let’s look at the near future of the keitai. Of course what will actually happen is not known but taking hints from its recent movements I will give my own perspective on the matter. Because it concerns the near future, the results will be evident in the not so distant future. Please think along with me.

Peace of Mind and Safety

Relative to other countries Japan seems to be very demanding about our peace of mind and safety. From this perspective, let us think about the future of the keitai.

Along these lines, recent concerns have been focused on the safety of food and the safety of children. Due to various contributing factors in the former there is a high probability of the IC tag coming into widespread use. In short, because of such incidents as mad cow disease, consumers’ interest in historical information about their food has increased.

In order to attach information to food, the two-dimensional barcodes or IC tags are the most likely candidates. Due to cost, currently there are increasingly more examples of the barcode being used, but the IC tag will probably be aggressively used in the future as well.

Let’s sort through all of these factors and look at their relationship to the keitai. The two dimensional barcode uses the camera of a keitai for inputting the data. Another way of stating this is to say because the keitai camera was so widespread, the use of two-dimensional barcodes in the supermarkets increased. This relationship would still be true even if IC tags were used. That is to say that the keitai will be the mainstay for information reader display devises. The reason behind this is not only that the keitai has an interface for both two dimensional barcodes and IC tags, behind a keitai there is a network. In many cases there is no need to connect up with the network and the keitai alone does the job. However, examples of situations where a network may be needed may include downloading information to a keitai from a network for the purpose of upgrading a system or in situations where it would be necessary to process information through a network because the information cannot be handled by a single keitai. And in situations where especially detailed information is required, a system where you can link up to a network in order to get the information would be needed.

The same as the above can be said about a keitai used as a credit card, a so-called “wallet keitai.” A keitai is not needed merely to pay for items; a card is all that is needed for that. However, in order to withdraw funds from your bank or receive certificates or records of payments and to format that into database form would require connecting with a network.

I believe all of these are the forerunners of the ubiquitous world system. In brief, the scenario is that there will be vehicles interspersed over a broad area that are able to transmit information for the keitai and the information source for these interspersed vehicles will have a very high functionality level. That source of information will develop side by side with the interspersed vehicles and the network that supports all of this will be in place. The probability of this scenario being realized increases as the heightened demand for peace of mind and safety increases.

The next most pressing topic with regards to peace of mind and safety is the safety of children. The problems concerning the issues with the keitai and emergency calls to 911 have only gotten worse (the caller’s location cannot be ascertained). In Korea, measures are being taken to keep the keitai from being disconnected once an emergency call is made.

Positioning information as it relates to privacy is very subtle and there is an aspect that will not allow for it to be easily incorporated. For this reason the predominant applications that are being developed are ones such as car navigation systems that will capture your position. However, the demand for peace of mind and safety is extremely strong and along with the backing of technological support it will most likely bring about a large shift in the handling of the positioning information of others. I mean by this that the focus will shift to applications where a third party will be able to know the keitai user’s position for the purposes of emergency calls and keeping track of children. Of course for this to be actualized not only is the technology needed, but a socially agreed upon system will need to be put in place through laws relating to the handling of information.

UIM Cards

The SIM (Subscriber Identity Module) card that has come to be broadly used with the GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) throughout the world, along with a few functional enhancements, has finally arrived in Japan as the UIM (User Identity Module) card. It is a memory card containing data about the user. A keitai can only be used by inserting this card. This inherently has an element that changes the meaning of a keitai. In other words, we think that a keitai belong to ourselves alone, but in actuality it is not limited only to my use. What actually belongs to me alone is the UIM card (I am not the owner of the keitai but have the right to be a user). Putting it another way, this will make it possible to use other people’s keitai. This has the potential of making things very interesting in the future. That is to say, just as one purchases clothing, a keitai user will have many keitais and use whichever depending on the situation at will. The variety of keitais in our country is so limited today that it is a pitiful situation. But there may come a time when depending on the day you may choose a keitai with complicated functions, or one that looks sharp, or one the size of a watch.

It is as though the UIM card made portions of the keitai separable. Now we can think of many different portions that can be separated. The battery is one of them. The face of the keitai for fashion purposes can be another. It is also possible for the wireless portion alone to be separated. An example of this is when a keitai card or PHS card is placed in your PDA.

When thinking along these lines, the functions that are chosen to be included in the UIM card become very important. Currently the basic functions for standard usage and a small database (for telephone numbers) are included. However that alone may not do enough to support the lifestyle of using a number of differing keitais. A keitai contains a lot of personal information about the user. Especially the telephone contacts list, as stated earlier, is not merely for the purposes of making phone calls but it is a database by which a decision is made whether to answer a call or not. In this way if the information that is placed in the detachable memory is substantial, a large transformation in the role of the keitai is likely. An idea has also been put forward to make batteries a type of public communal property where one can exchange the used up battery for a charged one for a small fee. The choice of using a certain keitai based on the functions that are loaded into a card has the potential of leading us into areas that we have not even conceived yet.

Fixed Rate Systems

Packaged plans with fixed rates are becoming popular. It depends on the rate plan but the incorporation of fixed rate plans will greatly influence the way a keitai is used. The greatest difference will be with the expectations of communications businesses. Up until now the idea is to have people use their keitai as much as possible however if the fixed rate system is put in place this foundation may fall apart. In short, it may switch to “try not to use it as much as possible.” If the keitai is excessively used because of the fixed rate, in spite of the same rates, the number of support facilities will have to be regularly increased. If the customer would limit their use of he keitai or the package hours of their own accord, nothing would make the businesses happier. When on an underground train, because the keitai phone cannot be used, most people are e-mailing or are connected to the Internet for news information. These all are using up the keitai resources. The communications businesses would be grateful if everyone would just watch a television program during this time.

I don’t know if things will go in the direction mentioned here but from an extreme perspective, I have a feeling that it looks as though people will fall away from network gaming that looked to be so promising and will be more interested in such things like television reception that uses very little of the network resources. And again regarding the games, they will most likely move in the direction of single unit type games or those that do not require networking such as linking with a nearby person through Bluetooth. Where the fixed rate system will end up and how it will spread will greatly influence the future of the keitai.

The relationship with the wireless LAN will change as well. The PHS system can be used in the public mode or the private mode. This is so that at your home or your workplace the phone can be used at no cost. In comparison, the keitai however has no “private” mode. It still costs money even if used at your workplace. For this reason a link with the wireless LAN is being pursued. However, if the fixed rate system is used, whether the keitai is used or not would make no difference, as long as there are no functional problems, the users will freely use it all they wish.

This relationship may seem to entail a self-defeating element to the phone operator. In thinking along these lines of the future, the keitai’s move toward broadband and the fact that the wireless frequency will go up, will be difficult for the waves to enter enclosed spaces. In other words, there will be more indoor areas where the keitai will not be able to be used. For this reason it will be necessary to link the keitai with the business LAN or a wireless LAN system. And just as the wireless LAN becomes necessary, from the customer’s perspective it would look as though keitai would be unnecessary and hence, seemingly, let us say, self-defeating. In reality I’m sure it will not play out in this manner but the linkage will be well-coordinated. However, as can be seen, it is certain that the fixed rate system will have ramifications in many various areas. Above all, as stated earlier, those ramifications are going to be firmly based on the established rate system. Our focus will be on how it will unfold.

Linking/Uniting Communication and Broadcasting

As stated earlier in the Fixed Rate System section, I sense a small amount of potentiality with this specific service through which digital broadcast can be received on the keitai. It will lead into great opportunities, greatly influencing the path to uniting or linking broadcasting with communications. Recently the Softbank, Rakuten, bought a professional baseball team and is broadcasting their games live on the Internet. The Softbank requires a membership with Yahoo!BB (broadband) and has an annual service fee of $900 (100,000 yen) To what degree this type of service will even take root is another factor that will influence the structure of communications and broadcasting linking up.

From the Internet side of the matter, should the powerful means of transmission called broadcast waves become available for use, there will not only be Internet broadcasting but it will provide a groundwork delivery system for the Internet to send the same information simultaneously to multiple people. In which case, it will most likely cause an upheaval in the education and publishing businesses that are content-based and will be effective in communicating emergency information. It may be also able to be used for the concurrent changeover of security system secret keys, and I’m sure various other new uses will be born out of it.

Part of the content of public broadcasting involves “news” which plays a very important social role. I truly doubt that this role will ever go away.

However, has the time not come, for the purposes of moving forward in uniting the Internet and communication, to conceptually separate from this role system from the broadcast content?

Fourth Generation (4G) Mobile Communication

The third generation mobile communication (3G) has just begun to take root and they are already talking of the next generation. It is of course necessary to go about technology development with an eye for the future, but there are other reasons behind this as well. 3G is the world’s first standardized system. Many months and years went into for its development and standardization. In other words, during the period the 3G system was being developed, there was not a strong Internet awareness at that time. It has an element about it that when it was finally completed time had already moved on.

The 4G, using a few hundred megabits/second transmission speeds and such features as “specialized personal terminals,” “seamless communications environment” and “information service customized to every situation” is being touted for the year 2010.

A “specialized personal terminal” is most likely a terminal that can be used discriminately depending on the situation similar to that of an enhanced form of the UIM card. A “seamless communications environment” means that in conjunction with the wireless LAN and the ubiquitous environment one would be able to transmit anywhere they are. This element will also be necessary to compensate for the shrinking transmission capable areas due to accelerated speeds. The “information service customized to every situation” seemingly means the transmission speed will be changeable; for example, to transmit slowly for mail but with no delay for phone transmission.

The attractiveness of such a system is that it is broadband. If in the same service areas where we now have keitai this type of transmission speeds were enabled, there would be a radical change in access type systems including that of the fixed line communications. In my mind, this would be a very difficult thing to accomplish, but I will expectantly wait nonetheless.

Well, leaving behind all of these movements, I would like to mention a few of my personal dreams for the 4G. People use their five senses and their brain to absorb information from the outside world and then process and understand it. I want help for this. If I point a keitai towards a living thing, it will tell me the name and species. If I point it towards food, it will tell me whether it is edible, or whether it tastes good. While just holding the keitai it will tell me my health condition and if I point it towards reading material or conversations taking place, it will translate them for me. In this way I would like for it play a supporting role to a human being’s five senses.

The Most Important Thing

The future of the keitai is broadening. Undoubtedly there are areas of concern, but it will probably move forward while absorbing those areas. There are many problems in this world that can’t be swept aside simply by saying it is “convenient.” It used to be a keitai was a luxury item. However, today, due to the ease of construction, low building costs and the declining prices of the keitai device itself there is a trend towards laying a nationwide network with the keitai. Keeping such matters in mind, we need to take a step back and reconsider the role of the keitai and to envision our dream for the future of the keitai.

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